Executive read

The three sentences to open the room with, and the evidence warnings that come first.

Slide 1 · The framing

Manufacturing is not one market. It is nine, and they are diverging.

~$31bnIFS-addressable mfg software pool, 2026Estimate

8.7%Blended CAGR 2026–2031Derived, not the published 9–12%

+25%IFS ARR growth, H1 2026Cited

3×Unresolved conflict in published mfg-ERP TAMConflict

−21.4%US mfg construction, YoY Jun 2026Cited

Compiled 12 August 2026 · Cited figures carry a named source. Derived figures show their arithmetic. Gaps are stated as gaps, not filled with plausible numbers.

Slide 2 · The thesis

This is a system-of-record problem, not an AI problem.

The strongest 2026 evidence does not support "manufacturers need AI" or "manufacturers cannot hire". It supports something narrower and more useful.

The four highest-scoring challenges in this pack — trade-policy volatility, the inventory/service-level contradiction, the SAP ECC migration window, and the aftermarket/warranty data gap — all sit inside the existing IFS Cloud footprint. None requires a new category.

Slide 3 · Where the market is

The pool is ~$31bn growing ~8.7%. Not 12%.

Manufacturing ERP plus the manufacturing slice of EAM, FSM and SCM. Published forecasts have not repriced for collapsing manufacturing capex.

Published forecasts9–12%

Our blended view8.7%

−21.4%US mfg construction, YoY

−31%Off its Aug-2024 peak

Estimate Method in Segmentation and TAM.

Slide 4 · Where the pain is

Regulation and trade. Not technology.

4 tariff authoritiesInvoked in six months. Cost assumptions re-derived every quarter.

5 EU regimesConverging on one traceability data object.

20 Jan 2027Machinery Regulation turns "what software is on this asset" into a statutory duty.

These are ERP, EAM and FSM data problems with legal deadlines attached. Deadlines are easier to sell against than aspirations.

Cited Primary sources: EUR-Lex, Federal Register.

Slide 5 · Where the risk is

IFS owns execution. It does not own the data layer.

4 of 6 OT vendorsHave publicly ceded the execution layer to IFS.

$3.1bnSchneider is paying that for Cognite.

Falkonry: never completedSo IFS has no owned OT/time-series layer.

The failure mode: if IFS loses the intelligence layer, it becomes a commoditised system of record.

Slide 6 · Before any number goes on a slide

Three warnings about the evidence.

1 · Tier-1 data is paywalledGartner doc 7096933 and doc 5972771 both exist and publish nothing publicly. IDC's tracker is subscription-only. Almost every TAM figure here is tier-2 modelled research.

2 · "Manufacturing ERP" varies 3×Mordor's dedicated report says $5.90bn. Mordor's own total-ERP report implies $17.6bn. Grand View implies $15.2bn.

3 · Forecasts haven't repricedNine consecutive months of decline in US mfg construction, −24% clean-manufacturing investment, $17bn of cancellations, CHIPS credit expiring Dec 2026.

Action before the session: pull those two Gartner documents on IFS's own seat. Single highest-value input this pack is missing.

Do not put a single manufacturing-ERP number on a slide. Use the $15–18bn range and treat $5.9bn as a narrower "manufacturing-specific ERP products" cut.

US Census CB26-126 · Rhodium/MIT CEEPR · CRS R49031

Slide 7 · How to read every figure

Four labels, used throughout.

Label	Meaning
Cited	Published by a named source, with URL
Derived	Arithmetic on two or more cited figures; method shown
Estimate	Our allocation or assumption; not published anywhere
Conflict	Sources disagree materially; range given, never an average